Rick Santorum Concedes the Race

Santorum

The Republican presidential primary effectively ended today. Rick Santorum gave a speech to announce that he is suspending his campaign; he conceded the race to Mitt Romney in a phone call. As Elephant Watcher predicted, Santorum's loss in Wisconsin changed the race in a fundamental way, such that no one could any longer deny that Romney was going to win the nomination. Although there were many states left in the primary calendar that favor Santorum, it's likely that Santorum's campaign was able to conclude that Santorum would lose in Pennsylvania. A few days ago, a poll was released showing Romney with a lead in Pennsylvania; Santorum's campaign probably had access to some private polling data as well. Though Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul have not officially dropped out of the race, their efforts to amass delegates were even less successful than Santorum's--and they are no longer considered genuine candidates. At this point, Gingrich would struggle even to win Southern states with a protest vote in May.

Barring a tragic accident, Romney will be the Republican nominee for president this year. A little over six months ago, and about three months before voting began in Iowa, Elephant Watcher was able to project that Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination. Although Romney could never hope to consolidate both wings of the Republican Party, he won because he was the only remaining candidate who was considered highly electable (aside from Jon Huntsman, who ran to the left of Romney). The rest of the candidates had serious issues, though primary voters tended not to be aware of those issues until after each candidate was brought under media scrutiny. In December, Elephant Watcher explained this was the fundamental driver of the ups and downs in the polls, which in fact continued until Santorum's collapse in March.

Throughout 2011, the conventional wisdom among the news media and political pundits was that Romney was limited by a ceiling of 25% of the Republican primary electorate. Elephant Watcher debunked the 25% ceiling myth in November. As Romney's competitors' electability issues surfaced, Romney surged and broke through the ceiling.

Many in the Tea Party could not believe--especially after their victories in 2010--that the Republican Party would end up nominating another "RINO" for president. They were certain that someone with unimpeachable conservative credentials would win the primary, rather than a moderate. But the fact is that by the beginning of October, the Party had no alternative. A number of highly-electable conservatives could have run (and in Tim Pawlenty's case, did run until his early exit), but they chose not to run. Romney's own weaknesses forced him to fight for the nomination, but the ultimate outcome could not be in serious doubt.