Ron Paul, despite having failed to win a state so far, is in second place at 0.8%. Newt Gingrich is truly close to 0%, trading at 0.2% along with several candidates who didn't run (Sarah Palin, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, etc.). Jeb Bush, who for whatever reason is a partial stand-in for the chance of a contested convention, is ahead of Gingrich, at 0.6%. But Intrade investors also feel the odds of a contested convention have fallen substantially: They give it just a 3% chance of occurring.
In fact, the Intrade markets on individual contests appear to be predicting an all-out sweep for Romney from this point forward. Before Wisconsin, they felt Santorum was relatively safe in his home state of Pennsylvania, giving him about a 2/3 chance of winning there. But now they rate the probability of a Romney upset in Pennsylvania at 84.7%. And Romney is almost certain to steal the big Southern prize, Texas: 92.4%, according to Intrade.
Intrade's high level of confidence of Romney winning Texas is particularly interesting, given Romney's weakness in the South so far. One possible explanation is that Intrade investors foresee Santorum dropping out of the race prior to the Texas Primary (May 29th). If they're right about Romney winning Pennsylvania, it's a real possibility.
