Santorum Wins Alabama and Mississippi

Rick Santorum won the two Deep south states on Tuesday, edging out Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney in close races in both Alabama and Mississippi. (Hawaii and American Samoa will report their results later than the Southern States, owing to the time zone difference.) Santorum desperately needed both of his wins, since his only hope of changing the race is to knock Gingrich out. Though Gingrich claims he will remain in the race until the convention, he may very well drop out of the race now; if he can't win in the Deep South, he can't win anywhere. Even if Gingrich remains, he will be much less of a factor now that Santorum has clearly been designated the chief Anti-Romney in all regions.

The split between Santorum and Gingrich was almost even. In fact, the split almost enabled Romney to steal a win with his share of just under a third of the vote. The polling, political analysts, and Intrade investors didn't give Santorum much chance of winning both contests. However, as Elephant Watcher explained yesterday, Santorum's odds were being underestimated--a strategic shift of Gingrich voters over to Santorum was likely. Elephant Watcher proved to be correct; a last-minute shift occurred in both states and made the difference.

Alabama Primary (77% reporting)
Santorum -- 35%
Gingrich -- 30%
Romney -- 28%
Paul -- 5%

Mississippi Primary (92% reporting)
Santorum -- 33%
Gingrich -- 31%
Romney -- 30%
Paul -- 4%

If the numbers hold, it will be the worst result possible for Romney, as his third place finishes will enable him to accumulate fewer delegates, while Gingrich's second place finishes won't be enough to keep Gingrich in the race. The calls for Gingrich to drop out will become louder as time goes on. If Gingrich drops out, Santorum will benefit. If Gingrich doesn't drop out, Santorum will still get most of the benefit since even diehard Gingrich fans will realize Gingrich's campaign is no longer viable.

Unfortunately for Santorum, Gingrich's defeat needed to come much earlier to make a real difference in the delegate math. The race isn't over, but many delegates have already been awarded. During that time, Gingrich took many delegates that otherwise would have gone to Santorum. Gingrich's vote share also could have made the difference in key states that Santorum lost to Romney, like Michigan and Ohio. For Santorum to have a shot at winning a majority of the delegates, he needs to prove that Gingrich's departure or marginalization will enable Santorum to win the rest of the Midwest and break into some of Romney's strongholds.