Jeb Bush, who is not running for president and recently endorsed Romney, is at 0.4%, slightly above Gingrich. Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee are also trading at about that level. Jeb Bush had been acting as a stand-in of sorts on the odds of a contested convention occurring; before Bush announced he was endorsing Romney, he was actually trading at about 2.0%, almost even with Santorum.
Intrade no longer believes there's a significant chance of a contested convention (the scenario in which no candidate wins a majority of the delegates during the primary season). The market for a contested convention occurring rates the probability at 8.7%. It reached a high point of near 30% in mid-February, when Santorum was enjoying his surge. According to the market, the odds of a contested convention dropped rapidly in the days following Santorum's wins in the South; that was when the media began paying more attention to the delegate math.
Although the only polling for the Wisconsin Primary, taken back in February, had Santorum with a sizable lead, Intrade gives Romney a 64% chance of winning Wisconsin. This is reminiscent of the days before the Ohio Primary, when Intrade correctly anticipated Romney's rise and victory in the state (though the market went haywire on the night of the contest, when the vote count was extremely close). In the various Northeastern primaries taking place in April, Intrade gives Romney a lock of over 90% in each contest.
Only in Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania is the Intrade market bullish on the man's chances. Santorum is given a 66% chance of winning--not very high, considering. Intrade also foresees an early end to the primary season: The market gives Romney a 65% chance of winning Texas!
