Every Republican presidential primary is different, but winning the primary always comes down to two different factors: Electability and conservatism. Republicans want a candidate who will win, and one who will govern as a conservative after he wins. In theory, it's that simple. If one candidate can claim to be the most conservative and the most electable among the field, he will win the nomination. But most of the time, one candidate doesn't possess more electability and conservatism than all the rest of the candidates, so the voters must weigh the two factors.
Which do voters care about more, electability or conservatism? History suggests the answer is electability. Republicans often nominate a candidate who is viewed as a "RINO," but rarely one who is viewed as too extreme or inexperienced to be elected. But more than that, electability is seen as a baseline qualification. It's not a virtue; it's a requirement. And it shouldn't be too difficult to be considered electable: All it requires is a decent amount of high-level government experience, not being viewed as an extremist politically, and not coming across as a strange, scandalous, or stupid person.
But of the nine Republicans who ran for president this cycle (Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, Pawlenty, Perry, Romney, Santorum), there was an unusually large number who lacked the basic qualification of electability. Bachmann, Cain, and Paul were considered extremely unelectable. Gingrich and, increasingly as time went on, Perry also fell into the camp. Huntsman, Pawlenty, and Romney all seemed to be electable. Santorum was left somewhere in between.
Of the three who were considered obviously electable, Huntsman and Romney had questionable conservatism. That left Tim Pawlenty as the only candidate in the field who was both very conservative and electable--and he quit the race back in August 2011. It's no wonder Republicans have long felt that their field this year is weak. They are in disbelief that the Party could not produce even one candidate who met their basic requirements, let alone inspire them.
Now that the field has been narrowed to a duel between Romney and Santorum, voters will need to determine the conservatism and electability of each one, and determine how to weigh the factors. How will they go about doing this? We will discuss that process in Part 2.
