Rick Perry's Terrible Poll Numbers

On paper, Rick Perry has the potential to be a strong candidate in the race for the Republican 2012 presidential nomination: He is currently in office, he has been governor of the largest red state for the last ten years, there is a record of strong job growth in his state, he has a history of winning state-wide elections, he has a lot of financial backing from powerful Republican fundraisers, he is willing to "talk tough" against the Democrats, and he is generally considered to be a conservative.

Perry's "on-paper" credentials catapulted him to the front of the pack, but he has since collapsed. By showing his inability to debate and by making controversial attacks against social security, his perceived electability fell. By appearing soft on illegal immigration and attempting to force the HPV vaccine, his perceived conservatism fell.

Being undermined on both electability and conservatism is a deadly combination. Today's poll round-up will focus on just how far Perry has fallen. The following national and early state polls were conducted within the last two weeks. Perry's rank will be bolded on each poll.

National Primary Polls
10/17 Associated Press -- Romney 30, Cain 26, Perry 13, Paul 8
10/16 CNN/Opinion Research -- Romney 26, Cain 25, Perry 13, Paul 9
10/12 Rasmussen -- Romney 29, Cain 29, Gingrich 10, Perry 9
10/10 PPP (D) -- Cain 30, Romney 22, Gingrich 15, Perry 14
10/10 NBC/WSJ -- Cain 27, Romney 23, Perry 16, Paul 11
10/10 Reuters/Ipsos -- Romney 23, Cain 19, Paul 13, Perry 10

Iowa Caucus
10/19 Hawkeye/UIowa --Cain 37, Romney 27, Paul 11, Gingrich 8 (5th)
10/19 Rasmussen -- Cain 28, Romney 21, Paul 10, Gingrich 9 (5th)
10/16 Insider Adv -- Cain 26, Romney 18, Gingrich 12, Bachmann 11 (5th)
10/10 PPP (D) -- Cain 30, Romney 22, Paul 10, Perry 9

New Hampshire Primary
10/16 Insider Adv -- Romney 39, Cain 24, Paul 11, Huntsman 5 (5th)
10/13 Magellan (R) -- Romney 41, Cain 20, Paul 10, Huntsman 6 (5th)

South Carolina Primary
10/16 Insider Adv -- Cain 32, Romney 16, Perry 12, Gingrich 8
10/13 NBC/Marist -- Cain 31, Romney 28, Perry 10, Gingrich 7
10/10 ARG -- Cain 26, Romney 25, Perry 15, Gingrich 8

Florida Primary
10/16 Insider Adv -- Romney 33, Cain 30, Gingrich 12, Perry 3
10/12 NBC/Marist -- Romney 33, Cain 32, Perry 9, Gingrich 6
10/12 ARG -- Cain 34, Romney 28, Gingrich 11, Perry 5

These polls indicate that Perry is actually weakest in the earliest states; his national numbers are weak, but stronger than his Iowa and New Hampshire numbers. Were Perry to lose in Iowa and be crushed in New Hampshire, as the current polls suggest he would be, Perry would fall further behind in South Carolina and Florida. Perry has a long way to climb back, and he will need to get past Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich to do it. So far he has exhibited no inclination to do anything beyond attacking Mitt Romney.