Can Rick Santorum Become the Next Mike Huckabee?

Santorum

Since Rick Perry entered the race, the Republican primary has often been described as a two-man race: Mitt Romney vs. Rick Perry. The catastrophic results of Rick Perry's debate performances have yet to be fully measured, but they change the character of the race. But the primary's bipolar nature likely remains (unless Chris Christie announces he's running for president).

From the start, it's been Romney vs. the Anti-Romney candidate. For awhile, Perry seemed to be the obvious Anti-Romney, and the national primary polls suggested he would be a strong Anti-Romney at that. If Perry's collapse is as severe as it seems, the race would be Romney vs. Anti-Romney, with no clear Anti-Romney in sight. Indeed, if no strong candidate could fill the Anti-Romney role, the race might become unipolar: A weak field with Romney a heavy favorite to win.

Primary races tend to abhor a vacuum, however. Rather than allowing the vote to be split evenly among similar candidates, primary voters in early states tend to coalesce. Thus, history suggests that someone will become the Anti-Romney, though the race still may not be that close. If Perry slides out of the Anti-Romney position, it's anyone's guess as to whom the replacement will be.

Aside from Romney, the one candidate who benefited from the most recent debates was Rick Santorum. He was perceived as strong in his attacks against Perry; Michele Bachmann faded. Could Santorum become the next Mike Huckabee, a candidate whose strong debate performances lifted him up from polling 0% to winning Iowa?

At first glance, it looks like Santorum is the only candidate who's conservative and has moderate perceived electability: Bachmann, Cain, and Paul are viewed as unelectable. There are concerns about Gingrich's electability and conservatism. Huntsman's not running in Iowa. Perry is crashing. That only leaves Romney and Santorum.

But there are two reasons to think Santorum will have great difficulty playing the Huckabee role. First, Santorum is no Mike Huckabee. Santorum lacks Huckabee's charm and rhetorical skill. While a genuine social conservative, Santorum is not poised to win Evangelicals like Huckabee, a preacher who was constantly asked to defend his Christian beliefs in the debates.

Second, Santorum faces more rivalry for the right wing in Iowa than Huckabee did. Huckabee's competition was unsuited to win Evangelicals: John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney. There was no equivalent of Rick Perry in 2008. Santorum would not only need to beat Romney, but also Perry, as well as Tea Party favorites Bachmann and Cain.

The possibility is there for Santorum, but it's a very difficult road. Santorum would need to prove he can do more than attack and act outraged. He would need many, many strong debate performances. And he has not yet been attacked by any other candidate.