The July Campaign Dead Zone

As Phase Two of the Republican primary plods along, it's worth taking a look at the overall timeline of the 2012 nomination race. July has been relatively inactive, even compared to May and June, several months before many people take interest in the primary. The good news is that early primary polling has picked up significantly this month. This may reflect the fact that the field is mostly settled, and pollsters don't have to worry about candidates dropping out of the race. Or it could reflect an interest in Michele Bachmann's spike in popularity, as most of the new polls come out of Iowa.

At any rate, activity in the 2012 primary has likely reached its lowest point this month. For reasons that will become clear in the timeline below, more will happen in August. In September, Phase Three will begin and campaign activity will gradually increase until someone wins the nomination next year. If the candidates can consider what they're currently doing a vacation, this is it. July will be their last opportunity to breathe.

The following is a timeline of the "structured" events that have occurred and are scheduled to occur until the early primaries begin. It does not include major news events (such as gaffes during interviews).

April 2011
04/25 -- Haley Barbour declines to run

May 2011
05/05 -- Primary debate
05/11 -- Newt Gingrich enters the race
05/13 -- Ron Paul enters the race
05/14 -- Mike Huckabee declines to run
05/16 -- Donald Trump declines to run
05/21 -- Herman Cain enters the race
05/22 -- Mitch Daniels declines to run
05/23 -- Tim Pawlenty enters the race

June 2011
06/02 -- Mitt Romney enters the race
06/06 -- Rick Santorum enters the race
06/13 -- Primary debate
06/13 -- Michele Bachmann enters the race
06/21 -- Jon Huntsman, Jr. enters the race

July 2011
[none]

August 2011
08/?? -- Rick Perry enters the race(?)
08/11 -- Primary debate
08/13 -- Ames Straw Poll

September 2011
09/?? -- Sarah Palin declines to run(?)
09/?? -- Chris Christie enters the race(?)
09/07 -- Primary debate
09/12 -- Primary debate
09/22 -- Primary debate

October 2011
10/11 -- Primary debate
10/18 -- Primary debate

November 2011
[debates to be announced?]

December 2011
12/10 -- Primary debate
12/?? -- Candidates break for Christmas

January 2012
01/12 -- Primary debate
01/19 -- Primary debate
01/30 -- Primary debate

February 2012
02/06 -- Iowa Caucus
02/14 -- New Hampshire Primary
02/18 -- Nevada Caucus
02/?? -- Primary debate
02/?? -- Primary debate
02/?? -- South Carolina Primary

March 2012
03/05 -- Primary debate
03/06 -- Later Primaries/Caucuses begin